The IT Toolbox #006 - Multi-Cloud Strategy

A multi-cloud strategy is half-way between two types of thinking.

It's also not thought of as an optimal technical solution for a business problem.

But, it's the only way for late majority users to adopt the new technology lifecycle.  It's also the elephant in the room.

Let's start with Roger' bell curve:

Figure 1.  Roger' bell curve.  credit:Wikipedia.org

Conceptually, the businesses that are going to use a public cloud strategy effectively are the ones that are arguably already using it.  They were the innovators, AWS, Google, Azure, etc.  What's interesting, in the case of the first two, the lifecycle that lead to public cloud was an arbitrage of their excess capacity.  A way to wring out more value from already in place infrastructure.

The "earlies" saw this as a starting point for their needs.  Through consumption of a defined model of delivery, their use cases fit the new lifecycle model.  At any relative scale, public cloud was a way to reduce the business decision of build vs consume.  Netflix is an incredibly good example of an "early", using the new lifecycle model literally made it possible for them to concentrate their effort more specifically on developing their product.

The late majority has a different business problem than the innovators and the "earlies."

They desperately want to be able to take advantage of the advances they perceive in the technology change:

Figure 2.  Enterprise Virtualization vs Public Cloud - Link

I've previously described the state of advancement of enterprise virtualization vs @swardley 's Public Cloud map using his technique (above).  

The difference under the Wardley mapped model though, is that the Use Case doesn't align cleanly.

It is also why there's a contentious argument in the minds and words of business owners.

During the peak of expectations, we hear statements like this:

     "We're moving our workloads to public cloud."

     "We'll be 100% public cloud in 2 years."

In despair, the story changes.

      "Public cloud is too expensive."

      "Public cloud is not secure."

      This is also why Workload (or Cloud) Repatriation occurs.

With enlightenment, the story changes, yet again.

     "We're implementing with hybrid cloud, so we can take advantage of new technologies and techniques."

Today, anyone that says they are moving from legacy to hybrid cloud is perceived as a laggard.

Consider this:

When a business from the "earlies" in public cloud moves to hybrid, it is a conscious business decision. It's thought of as forward thinking. 

     Consider the infrastructure necessary to deliver Netflix today.  It's not pure public cloud.  In order to meet the content delivery goals with their customers, they built a Content Delivery Network (CDN), integrated with their platform.  It is hybrid. 

     When the public cloud innovators and the "earlies" start to invest in on-prem workload execution, it is hybrid.

Multi-Cloud Strategy is meeting in the middle ground.

     It is a legitimate tool in the #ITToolbox.

     The immediate future is hybrid.

The what all, of Enterprise Cloud adoption, and all

Was asked my thoughts on Enterprise Public Cloud adoption rate.

Sensors leading to Public Cloud adoption:

From an enterprise perspective, the volume of servers sold in the previous year is soft. http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3530117

The partnership that can underpin legacy enterprise app deployments in hybrid cloud has been announced.  https://blogs.vmware.com/vsphere/2016/10/vmware-aws-announce-strategic-partnership.html

The drivers for cost containment are going to become increasingly important as customers look for lower cost of service.  This will probably start looking like “Use (AWS or Azure) for disaster recovery” and likely to evolve into “Application Transformation” discussions as optimizations within the cloud.  The best way to see this is with the directionality of utility mapping like the value chains between enterprise and public cloud: http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/why-public-cloud-wins-workload-love.html

Microsoft has announced an Azure Stack appliance to extend the reach of capabilities into the private cloud.  http://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-to-release-azure-stack-as-an-appliance-in-mid-2017/

The cost / unit consumption of private Data Center estate is anywhere between ~40 and 100% more than public cloud.  This is further being eroded by co-location vendors continuing to drive down the cost/unit for data center vs new build.  It is becoming very costly to build or retrofit older data centers rather than simply consuming a service at cost that can be easily liquidated per month.  The large scale DC vendors are also creating ecosystem connections for networking directly with the public cloud vendors and where those don’t exist, companies like AT&T, etc are enabling this type of service connection via their MPLS capabilities.

Then, there’s the eventual large scale adoption of containers that present some additional optimizations, particularly as they relate to DevOps that further increase density over hypervisor based virtualization and increase dramatically the speed of change.  Further extending this capability, the network vendors, the historic last line to move in 3rd platform are starting to adopt these concepts.
http://www.abusedbits.com/2017/03/creation-and-destruction-without-remorse.html
http://www.investors.com/news/technology/can-cisco-take-aristas-best-customers-with-software-bait/
http://www.crn.com/slide-shows/channel-programs/300084323/arista-networks-exec-on-new-container-software-offensive-and-its-biggest-fundamental-advantage-over-cisco.htm?_lrsc=9ce3424f-25d3-4521-95e4-eeae8e96b525

This culminates in public cloud providers positioning themselves for legacy applications, cost containment, cost based on their operating models, positions in DR if they can’t get production workloads, integration into private cloud where they can’t get principle workloads and certainly new workloads in cost/volume based on scale.

This leads me to believe that the position on Public Cloud, from an enterprise perspective, is just starting…..

Public Cloud Echo in the Data Center

The ecosystem effects of workload placement in the cloud have a real effect on the enterprise Data Center that all CIOs should be aware of.

The cost of managing a Data Center is a fixed cost.

•      The real estate cost plus infrastructure cost defined when the DC was built.
•      There's the taxes that, depending on the jurisdiction, may see an increase or decrease over some relative but relevant time period.
•      The "nearly" fixed costs of electricity at volume required to operate the DC.
•      The maintenance, which also comes in relatively flat over time.
•      Then there is the inevitable upgrade/renew/replace that comes in roughly the 15-20 year mark that keeps DC managers up at night.

All of these costs must be liquidated against the cost of running everything within the Data Center. (This is a pretty important factor.)

At this moment in time, the Data Center business is seeing a significant increase in volume usage that makes the likes of a Mega Data Center (Mega as in MegaWatt) a viable size of delivery.

This is a fight in the economy of scale that ultimately resolves in Data Center operating in a Utility business model.  It is arguable that Public Cloud DCs are already operating in a Utility model.

What does this mean for the ever venerable Enterprise Data Center?

Figure 1:  DC Workload Shift toward Public Cloud

Workloads transitioned or transformed to operate in the Public Cloud moving out of the Enterprise Data Center are changing the cost base over time.  As indicated in the two simple trajectory graphs, the available inventory will increase as will cost per unit measured and the volume of workloads will decrease over time.

Add this to some really exciting capabilities in Software Defined Networking between the Enterprise (not necessarily the DC) and the Public Cloud and the economies of scale that the Enterprise Data Center were originally deployed for start to errode.

The workloads move for cost optimal delivery.  It provides agility to the business with the means to execute workloads significantly more rapidly.  Then there's the case of Software Defined Networking in this space providing Security, QoS and Latency management spread out over an entirely new capability and dimension.

As the Data Center is operated with a very large number of primarily fixed cost financials, scaling the Enterprise Data Center is incredibly difficult.  With this in mind, and no other means to spread the cost of the Enterprise DC investment, usage of Public Cloud will drive UP the per-workload cost of execution within the Enterprise Data Center as workload volume shifts.

Why?  http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/why-public-cloud-wins-workload-love.html 


Part 1:  There is a shift afoot, that is changing the business.
     http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/public-cloud-echo-in-data-center.html

Part 2: Moving time for the Enterprise Data Center?
     http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/diminution-of-enterprise-data-center.html

Part 3: The Enterprise Data Center is getting smaller.  Time to add that to the roadmap.
     http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/smallering-of-enterprise-data-center.html