Settlers and the New Problems

There are some fundamental truths that drive technology forward, not meaning to be entirely inclusive, but they certainly include

     Technology evolves on top of other technology advancements
     Technology needs to be simplified or abstracted away from complexity to advance

This leads to interesting side cases of where the interdependence of technology must co-evolve with a relatively uncertain future state to continue moving forward.  Part of the solution is an evolution on top of the old technology and part of the solution is an abstraction to solve a complexity problem.

There are also characteristics of technology that meet as part of an industrialization of the technology.  Chris Swan @cpswan speaks on this very elegantly in the move from a technology that is design for operations rather than a design for manufacture or the design for purpose.

Industrialization of this sort is a stepping stone, much like the technology changes that move the state of the art from Town Planners back to Genesis and Design for Purpose.

Settlers and the New Problem

Here's the diagram I'm using to try to illustrate this effect.  It is loosely based on the Wardley Map of  Settlers and an evolution step function that shows the evolution toward the "New Problems."

Looking forward to your feedback!

Update Apr 9:

Which lead to this:

http://www.abusedbits.com/2018/04/descriptive-evolution-mapping.html 

and then this:

http://www.abusedbits.com/2018/04/getting-to-new-problems.html

Why Public Cloud wins Workload Love

Enterprise Virtualization 2017 prediction vs Public Cloud

The graphic on the right is by @swardley (http://blog.gardeviance.org/) consumer cloud value chain and the drawing on the left is the 2017 update of the Enterprise Virtualization Value Chain @abusedbits.

I'm using this representation to provide a basis of understanding for the growth in workload volume in the Public Cloud space.

IDC is reporting that World Wide Public Cloud Services Spending Forecast will reach $195B by 2020 and I needed a way to show WHY this was happening.

This shift in workload delivery is not about cost, although the argument that workload execution relative to the coverage of the gap in the value chain is becoming extremely important.  The barrier of entry in a public cloud is extremely low.  So low that we have to pay attention to it.

Its also not about the technology currently available and operating at volume in each space, as both private and public cloud do nearly the same things.  Although, this is changing for Public Cloud with the addition of Lambda functions to market players like Amazon Web Services.

Containers are following a similar path in this space, making the locality of execution of a workload subsequently less "sticky" to the environment.  Where host virtualization has stalled, containers are positioning for least common denominator execution in multiple cloud environments.

What it does show is that the Public Cloud is operating with nearly all aspects of their service delivery in or near the Commodity or Utility area of the value chain.  Moreover, anything added to the Public Cloud capability is more rapidly pushed toward Commodity delivery.

Update:What's more, the pace of change in Private Cloud seems to be slowing in magnitude toward Utility.  If you consider the previous 3 years of change in the Private Cloud space, not even compute has made it to a Utility service.

This doesn't mean that everything is fit for Public Cloud.  Applications will need to be revisited with the idea that application execution has to evolve to reduce the effects of technical debt.  Realistically there is a crossroads in choice that needs to be made with older software that doesn't fit very well.

As @jpmorganthal states on migration to cloud .... “It’s complicated” http://jpmorgenthal.com/2016/08/  .

Update:  http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161130006375/en/Worldwide-Server-Market-Revenue-Declines-7.0-Quarter


Part 1:  There is a shift afoot, that is changing the business.
     http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/public-cloud-echo-in-data-center.html

Part 2: Moving time for the Enterprise Data Center?
     http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/diminution-of-enterprise-data-center.html

Part 3: The Enterprise Data Center is getting smaller.  Time to add that to the roadmap.
     http://www.abusedbits.com/2016/11/smallering-of-enterprise-data-center.html

2016 - Mapping Exercise - Enterprise Virtualization